by Yohannes Aberra (PhD)
The metaphor is strikingly revealing. It is a story of uninformed choice in Aesop’s Fables: “A Stag was chased by the hounds, and took refuge in a cave, where he hoped to be safe from his pursuers. Unfortunately the cave contained a Lion, to whom he fell an easy prey. ‘Unhappy that I am,’ he cried, ‘I am saved from the power of the dogs only to fall into the clutches of a Lion.’ The behavior of the political and economic elite in societies that have been prevented from taking decisions into their own hands can be
described by still another metaphor: the cart-horse and the rider. The cart-rider shields the two eyes of the horse from side views and guides the horse in the direction of his interest. In the wild the horse freely chooses its path and avoids dangers by moving its eyes in all directions. Once in the service of humans it is bridled and whipped just as a mere mode of transport.
Moving in straight to the subject of this article one of the most widely talked about political issue is the “independence of Tigray”. There are countless of them on both sides of the independence divide in support and in opposition to the formation of a separate state. Both stances are in both places: support and opposition in Ethiopia and in Tigray. In this article I am focused on the support for the independence of Tigray. Opposition to it is subsumed in the discussion.
Support for Tigray independence in Ethiopia
One may start thinking that such support emanates from those who cherish freedom wherever and by whoever it is demanded. The truth is these are not Che-Guevaras of Ethiopia. They just want to get rid of Tigray as “an economic and geopolitical appendicitis”. They consider Ethiopian nationalism to be mere business guided by cost/benefit analysis: The wealthy regions are indispensable assets for Ethiopia whereas the poor regions are liabilities. Typical to this group is Colonel Mengistu Hailemariam’s
infamous public speech in which he branded Tigray as a source of the bad name for Ethiopia: “There is no hunger in Ethiopia; our name is being tarnished all over the world because of the hunger in Tigray”.
In another occasion, this is how Mengistu characterized Tigray: “Their (Tigray) contribution to the Ethiopia economy is not enough to buy even pieces of chalk”. Others with very loose tongues never hesitate for the sake of decency to say “Tigray is a stretch of unproductive sand and rock; it is a burden on Ethiopia”. Such a malignant attitude is so rooted in the psyche of countless pseudo-Ethiopians that over three decades after Mengistu a senior official of the current ruling party in Ethiopia gave “permission” in public for Tigray to form an independent state! This is only a little less than considering Tigray as a household slave the freedom of whom is proudly awarded by the head of the family. This is their strange style of loving Ethiopia dearly; removing “economic blemishes from its face”!
Such citizens of Ethiopia are so weak in the head that they see the independence of Tigray as the falling off of a dry leaf from a tree rather than as something that triggers a dangerous domino-effect in Ethiopia. These sorts of sick individuals have one reservation though. They would celebrate the separation of Tigray from Ethiopia but they hate to see a bright economic future in Tigray after independence. Their enthusiasm for the independence of Tigray wanes as a result and are locked in a huge dilemma. They find
themselves in preventing Tigray from separating on one occasion and preaching its separation on another. In desperation they think they found the right obstacle to prevent Tigray from faring better economically after independence: Denying Tigray the productive territories of Welkait and Raya.
They have computed their sick algebra that Tigray would be crippled without Welkait and Raya. They are too ignorant to realize that there are hundreds of alternative paths to development other than cultivating the land. Another tactic devised by these pseudo- Ethiopians to prevent Tigray from economic viability after independence is to run the irrational might of Eritrea against Tigray and block its access to the sea. In addition they try to befriend Afars and Sudanese to help lock Tigray in a windowless geopolitical cell. It is unfortunate that all the game is being played without Tigray saying a word about independence. This is happening at a time when Tigray is trying to build peace with Ethiopia in spite of the fact that it was and is being destroyed by the very country that is expected to nurture its citizens not to slaughter and impoverish them. It is a sick political game founded on sheer hatred in which Tigray is not willing to participate.
Support for Tigray independence in Tigray
The idea of independence as an option in Tigray is not an action but a reaction. One of the key triggers is what is discussed in the preceding section. Chronic hate is coming in torrents from an unexpected source: thousands of fellow compatriots in Ethiopia. The heat on the frying pan may be too intolerable; but jumping into the fire is not a wise decision. The pan fries you; but you are still meat. However, the fire burns and evaporates you into disappearance. The stag could have fought the hounds with its sharp horns and most probably defeat them. Unfortunately, the stag followed its instinct and thought the cave was safer than the open field. There was a much stronger lion in the cave! From outside the cave looks most hospitable; but the danger becomes apparent only when it is entered and visibility is very low.
Those who support and encourage the independence of Tigray may take it as a “tit-for- tat” with Ethiopia: “If they don’t want us; we don’t want them”. Of course, love cannot be true love if it rages only on one side; it would only be a mental illness. If Ethiopia does not love Tigray but Tigray lies between love and ambivalence in that regard this relationship either must end or be thoroughly examined. Not all support for independence arises from honest concern about the failure of the mutuality of love with Ethiopia. Many power craving Tigrayans, who are also most influential in Tigray politics cannot stand the idea of staying united with Ethiopia if they are not going to take the lion’s share from the power bounty at Arat Kilo. For them independence is an exit strategy from such an embarrassing failure. In this situation such individuals are blind to what would happen to the millions of Tigrayas, trapped in poverty and a windowless geopolitical box.
A bright picture is painted about a “reunion” with Eritrea and restoring the ancient Axumite glory with access to the sea; and a future of a Red Sea power against the odds of monstrous competitors in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Few admit the truth that in a thousand years things have changed beyond recognition. The bottom line is that Eritreans are not willing to give in to Tigrayan ambitions of a Red Sea state of Tigray.
What most Eritreans want is Tigray to disappear as a political entity so that it does not pose a huge stumbling block on their path to their ambitions on Ethiopia. From another perspective Eritreans do not want Ethiopia to take their ports and “recolonize” them.
They fear Tigray will be instrumental in this. They want to see a Tigray not as independent from Ethiopia but a very weak part of it. Tigray is an elitist society. The social hierarchy is so rooted in the unique but harmful culture that an external oppressor is less tolerated than an internal one. It is not as unusual as it is elsewhere in the world that oppressors can tolerably be one’s own sons and daughters. If independence whatever the cost means that rulers will be from their own ranks not from outside it is celebrated as “freedom” and “self-rule”. The top most group that knows very well the “us” versus “them” inculcated in the psyche of ordinary Tigrayans is TPLF. TPLF leaders who have evolved into a class of political and economic nobility are quite certain that in Tigray any idea of handing political power to the people is bound to fail miserably.
Whether it is going to be economically and geopolitically viable or not Tigrayans are delighted to be ruled by their “own” oligarchies. Tigrayans have to realize that “fellow rulers” are not necessarily better as much as the cave and the fire could not be better for the stag and for the meat respectively. The 30 years of TPLF rule have clearly shown that one’s own rulers are not better positioned to help their people, but could even be worse than the alternative. The last two years have witnessed that the independence of Tigray would turn out to be a nightmare not as such for the lack of economic means for viability but the nature of the Tigray ruling and economic elite. With all certainty the elite running a political, social, and economic “wild-west” lack the DNA for cooperation and harmony to lead a people’s cause.
Let me tell you a story which firmly anchors my argument about the wrong sense of “self-rule” in Tigray. When Emperor Haile Selassie, who was much better enlightened than his predecessors in the craft of administering Ethiopia, decided to weaken the troublesome and war-like regional lords and centralize, opposition to him first arose in Tigray! Why? Was it because Tigray was governed by democratically elected leaders?
No! Tigray was being ruled by hundreds of local and sub-regional warlords who were messing up the Region every time they pick a quarrel between them. The people suffered for decades as a result. Conferring with his advisors well versed in the field the Emperor got suggestions from the experts that he assigns a professional to administer Tigray. The Emperor, who was keen to end regional “warlordism” did not take the advice. Here is why: He said “The people of Tigray love their hereditary rulers; not some expert-guy”. This must be a curse that is still haunting the 21st century generation of Tigray. In view of
this independent Tigray will be a tragic scene of restored feudalism in its worst form!
Any thought of independence for Tigray is dead on arrival for the sake of the people who need to live a meaningful life. Ethiopia is a better evil. Through time it can be turned into an Angel for Tigrayans if the latter live up to expectations of respecting and defending its national interest. Fatal carelessness on the key national interests of Ethiopia like territorial integrity and access to the sea is not for Tigrayans to trample on. Hundreds of thousands of economically significant Tigrayans make their living in Addis Ababa and elsewhere in Ethiopia. Many of them are comparatively richer than other Ethiopians. They have established their lives in Ethiopia so firmly that it is not Mekele that is the economic power house of Tigray; Addis Ababa is!!
Eritreans, who wrongly thought independence would give them a better advantage over Ethiopia counted their chicks before hatching. Before independence Eritreans all over Ethiopia were more active and more prosperous than the rest of Ethiopians. Eritreans are now running around into and out of Ethiopia like bees who have lost their queen. Their fate became like the poultry farmer who slaughtered his goose to get all the golden eggs at once. Should Tigrayans repeat the same mistake as their kins in the north did? “A hintfor a wise; a stick for a donkey”!
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