“The Pretoria Scare”: Tigray Held Hostage by a TPLF Hardcore

by Yohannes Aberra (PhD)

Two Sides of the Same Coin

“TPLF and The People of Tigray are two sides of the same coin” said Dr. Debretsion Gebre Michael, chairperson of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in his opening speech at the controversial 14^th TPLF Congress. Such politically convenient but socially disastrous statements test one’s wisdom and I doubted my several decades’ old knowledge of what a political party really is. I had to flip through the pages of an encyclopedia and this is what I found: “A political party is an organization that coordinates candidates to compete in a particular country’s elections. It is common for the members of a party to hold similar ideas about politics, and parties may promote specific ideological or policy goals.”  

The logic that underlies this definition is that a party is just an ideological group and entre people do not normally have the same ideology. It follows therefore that a party is at least demographically much smaller than the entire population and works for a representation in parliament for a section of the population depending on the number of ballots cast for it. The spurious equation of party and people is the tallest claim that is often made by politicians in order to hold the people hostage to shield themselves from whatever threats they are faced with. Self-centered leaders deliberately immunize people from political literacy. After all, such statements about party-people equation would appeal to emotions rather than to reason.

The source of the boldness of TPLF leadership to make such statements may arise out of expectations of gratefulness from the people for freeing them from military dictatorship and the recent invasion by allied forces under the Federal Government’s command. To begin with, the premise for the “People-TPLF Equation” is a fallacy. It is far from the truth that all Tigrayans love and cherish the TPLF just for what it is. Any attachment to the TPLF is either fear-induced or powered by shared history of martyrdom in the long armed struggle. The persistent fear people harbor of genocide in the hands of political forces from outside Tigray has given the TPLF a ‘VIP-visa’ to pervade and control all spheres of life in Tigray: political, economic, and social.

TPLF and The people seem to be two sides of the same coin as a logical outcome of the “No-other-option-scenario” in Tigray. Did the people refuse to have options of other political groups because they love the TPLF so dearly? Not at all! Like in a eucalyptus groove the trees do not allow other plants to grow under their shade and compete with them for water and sunlight. Since day one of TPLF’s existence the political group neither tolerated dissent from its own ranks nor competition from outside it. Its tragic history of eliminating other political movements from Tigray during the armed struggle did not end in the last three decades of TPLF as a ruling party in Ethiopia and in Tigray. TPLF controls almost everything and is capable of acting with impunity so much that few dare to speak boldly against it. Most people, from the corrupt business elite at the top to the aid-dependent millions at the bottom prefer to bow to the TPLF because all ways take to TPLF as did to Rome. While the source of the equation is TPLF itself, it throws equation back to the people as if the people created the equation on their own free will.  

TPLF has never been genuinely and honestly united with the people. What TPLF wants the people for has always been crystal clear: the use-vale not the value of the people. Unlike the “Woyane” movement of the 1940s the 17 years long armed struggle led by TPLF did not start as a spontaneous mass uprising. The truth has to be told how bitter it may be. There was no demand from the people of Tigray for a party leadership in the early 1970s. The people of Tigray were just waiting for the post- “Yekatit 66” uprising and the military coup to come out with solutions for their age-old problems similar to what the rest of Ethiopians did. The TPLF-led armed struggle did not evolve from the “Woyane” rebellion although TPLF prefers to refer to the armed struggle it led as “Woyane 2”. The “Woyane” rebellion was limited geographically to the eastern and southern districts of the then Governorate General of Tigre. 

Some district governors from the west and the north mobilized the people of the districts they ruled to fight against the rebels collaborating with the Monarchial Army and the British air power. The rebellion was not about Tigrayan Nationalism neither was it in support of the regional governor against the central government. It was a spontaneous uprising of the downtrodden seeking justice. TPLF started its armed struggle in Dedebit without prior consultation with the people of Tigray. In fact, TPLF’s existence came to the attention of the ordinary people several months if not years after its founding. 

As it happened in 2020 the involvement of the hundreds of thousands of people in the TPLF-led armed struggle was triggered not as such because so many people believed in the Marxist ideology adopted by TPLF but because they were left without choice by the Ethiopian Army’s indiscriminate killing of civilians. Politicians in the Military government were set so conveniently for TPLF propaganda that the struggle for survival was dubbed a “liberation struggle”. If there was a good reason for the people to be on the other side of a TPLF coin is just a marriage of choice for the choice-less. After victory, the people’s side of the coin was scratched clean and forgotten in practice. 

For 27 years the “two sides of the coin” narrative ceased to exist. TPLF was carved out on both sides of the coin! TPLF became the ruling elite in Ethiopia and the people in Tigray lived with poverty-cum-endless story of bravery. Keeping the people in poverty and ignorance was like putting money in the bank to cater for possible bad days in the future. Literate and well-fed people do not take tall orders on their lives and livelihoods; people kept in perpetual slavery do! TPLF turned out to be a bunch of prophets and that day came on 4^th November, 2020. The people were as ready as ever to save the TPLF from its own friends: “the cash was withdrawn from the bank to pay for surviving the odds”.

The vicious-Tigrayan-cycle of the spurious equation surfaced again after the Pretoria-deal. As soon as the hostilities ended, TPLF survived the improbable, and got its composure back, it callously went ahead with its notorious ‘business-as-usual’: neglecting the millions who paid in their lives, honor, and property to save it from the “tsunami” that engulfed Tigray. TPLF’s endless meetings and conferences were held, in luxurious auditoriums, with well-fed and well-dressed participants while millions were starving, hundreds of thousands IDPs in make-shift tent-camps all over Tigray, and people were barely able to make ends meet in the aftermath of the war. 

The tragicomedy in this regard is what the chairman of the TPLF said during the opening speech of the 14^th TPLF congress probably trying to solicit compliments for his party. His words may not have been noticed by many; but they tell the story of TPLF’s callousness to the misery in war-torn Tigray. He said: “The 14^th TPLF congress is held at a time when thousands of IDPs are still in their temporary shelters”. OMG! He was telling the people in black and white that the Congress is given priority over the lives of nearly a million IDPs! Here is the syllogism which is implied by Dr. Debretsion’s statement:

The fallacious point of argument:  “Saving TPLF in order to save Tigray”, firmly anchored in their minds, illiterate men and women, as well as the highly educated alike are out and about preaching “TPLFs Gospel”: the primacy of saving TPLF. Many, including the chairperson of the TPLF are demonizing the dissenters within the party’s leadership, who rightly doubted the wisdom of holding a congress at this most critical hour for the people of Tigray, are being branded as “renegades, snakes who hatched within TPLF ranks, bad breeds, etc.”. This is going too far from a possible peaceful conclusion of the otherwise benign political difference. Throwing personal insults in the social media at the dissenters, who are highly educated and highly experienced in the things they are engaged in, may make it seem too personal. 

The fact that many of the dissenters are from the intellectual elite-core of Enderta and Raya could further fuel anger in the already fragile relationships with the elites drawn from other districts of Tigray. There has been more than a century old discord between the northern and the southern districts of Tigray as a residual from the historical feud between the belligerent warlords of Tigray in the past. The half a century existence of the TPLF did not help to end this undercurrent of hostility; it rather added fuel to it in the name of uniting Tigray without due regard to the grievances of its relatively disparate constituents. A closer look at the dangerous political  processes in Tigray reveals a striking similarity with the “war-lordism” of the early 20^th Century in Tigray. The difference could be the videos are in grey and in color respectively: The geography of the warlords and their differential relationship with the central government in Addis Ababa.

“The Pretoria Scare”

What can be dubbed as the “Pretoria scare” is the ill-advised methodology used by the “hardcore” TPLF leadership to discipline the people of Tigray in their favour. It is tantamount to shouting: “Shut up! Otherwise…”. With a deeper thought, one can wonder if the leaders of the TPLF are really the sons and daughters of the brave, noble and patient people of Tigray.  There are limits to greed and how far one can go with the ill-treatment of parents. Pushing too hard to the point, where people would begin to say “Go to hell even if you are our sons and daughters”, is what a TPLF with sanity must dread.

The Pretoria Agreement is a better evil to what could have otherwise happened in its absence. The people of Tigray did not deserve such a calamity; but for helpless people led by self-centered political and military elite worse is better than worst. Numerous TPLF cadres and ordinary members callously bragged about saving five million after paying one million. Your brain will be jammed and stops working when you try to imagine what it means to lose one million people and those responsible care less about it. Our moms cried all their lives for the death of their parents. This showed the value of human beings in those blessed years. These days greed has replaced grief and death of millions of loved ones is considered as a normal process in everyday life. After Pretoria, mourning processions and wedding parties were happening at the same time and in the same place in Tigray. This is not an exaggeration; I have seen it myself and hated myself as a result.

Regarding Pretoria-Agreement TPLF is both celebrating and grieving at the same time. The fact that those who signed the agreement, in its name, are not from its hardcore leadership gives the TPLF a reason to be furious. What gives pride to TPLF is the fact that Pretoria bears its name. For a fifty years old political party, which is expected to behave gracefully, such conflicting moods could be considered as infantile to critical observers. When the Agreement provided that the Provisional Government be composite TPLF craved for the usual monopoly and lashed out at those in the Regional administration with every available opportunity. 

The squabble between the two paralyzed the implementation of the Pretoria-Agreement to the pleasure of those who want to see it rendered null and void. Now the disagreement between TPLF hardcore leadership and the significant splinter group, manning the provisional government, have come to a head on collusion. In view of the intensity exchange of bruising war of words between the two groups one can be horrified by the possibility of a disastrous armed clash between them. Where exactly between the groups the army is positioned is hard to locate. However, given the loyalty of some generals to the TPLF hardcore and the declared impartiality of a few others makes the course of events unpredictable. The fact that individuals of huge significance are engaged in illicit mining and trade would make the effort made to bring peace in Tigray unsuccessful. Those who could bring real peace are “fishing in the troubled waters”.

Exhausting its “instilling fear and perpetuating dependence” tactics TPLF has resorted to something it should never have done unless it wants to be rid from the hearts of the people. It is not only love that is blind; power-mongering is also both blind and deaf. At this juncture in their long history what the people of Tigray fear the most is another war of probably at a much bigger scale than the last. The scariest words in Tigray are: “War is coming again!”. One who dares to say this to the people of Tigray is a worse enemy. The worst enemy is one who uses the threat for soliciting support from the people. This is a criminal act punishable by law. 

The last entity to use such a dreadful scare tactic on its own people should have been TPLF, assuming that it is a party of the people as it endlessly claims to be. Unfortunately, the chairman of the TPLF in the person of Dr. Debretsion did not hesitate for a second to utter this: “If the 14^th TPLF Congress is not held and TPLF does not survive, the Pretoria Agreement will be doomed along with it”. The meaning of this statement is very clear: If TPLF does not survive, the relative calm in Tigray will end and war will resume accomplishing its aborted goal: Death of millions and destruction of the land once and for all. This is how the hardcore leadership of the TPLF is holding the people of Tigray hostage in order not to lose privileges derived from clinging to power at all human and material costs. I expect Dr. Debretsion to apologize to the people of Tigray and swallow back his words.

Peace and Development First!  

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