by Yohannes Aberra, PhD
The Political Backdrop
The war in Tigray has ended; but the post war ugly scars, of the untold death and destruction, are visible in every square kilometer of the land and in the psyche of millions. Implementation of the Pretoria-agreement, that ended the war, is stalled as a logical consequence of the extended political wrangle among the political leaders. Uncompromising bipolar politics in Tigray has diverted the attention of the entire population of Tigray from restoration and development to that of survival. Vice President Kamala Harris said “the future is here!” She meant Americans have to shape their future and must start from now. For Tigray no future is there. People are worried just about everyday life. The feuding leaders are trying to snatch public support from each other not by honest means of doing what the people really want but by systematically instilling fear about a possible resumption of war.
In the last two years, in which the Pretoria-deal must have been fully implemented, politics in Tigray is locked in a vicious-cycle of blame and shame game. Most days of the post-Pretoria years were spent in conference halls, party leaders and functionaries pointing fingers at each other in endless mutual criticism. Since recently, the modus operandi of the intra-party dispute has shifted from auditoriums to the streets. Leaders of the two political poles are busy discrediting one another by drawing support in the forms of huge mass rallies. One can be reminded of the election rallies in different states by Trump and Harris. The difference is unmistakable: the rallies in USA witness the maturity of American democracy, whereas in Tigray it is a clear testimony that the road to democracy is mostly likely to be extremely rough.
Post-war reconstruction starts with a peace-treaty. This goes without saying. No reconstruction effort can be successful while conflict rages. Peace for post-war reconstruction can be achieved without a peace-treaty as well. World War II, the most devastating war in the history of the Planet did not end with a peace-treaty. The Axis powers surrendered to the Allied forces and the victors directly ruled the defeated states for a few years. The post-war reconstruction of Europe was a US designed and funded programme. The “Marshall Plan”, a brainchild of General George Marshall, was America’s success story in Europe. The plan for post-war reconstruction in Europe had little to do with the Yalta, Paris or Potsdam agreements signed in the end and in the aftermath of WWII. Even when wars or conflicts end through peace-agreements it does not imply that the agreements provide for the vitally needed economic restoration. Rebuilding the economy is critical for the maintenance of peace in which the possibility of the relapse of conflict is eliminated.
The Pretoria peace agreement, that ended the two-year long Tigray War, is essentially a political and security document: permanent cessation of hostilities; protection of civilians; disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR); confidence-building measures between the signatories, restoration of federal authority in the area of conflict and the protection of international borders and federal facilities, and Tigrayan representation in the Federal state apparatus. Humanitarian access is given due consideration as one of the eight points of the agreement. Humanitarian access is one of the key action points in the first phase of post-war reconstruction. However, since the agreement does not promise support for transitioning humanitarian aid into economic self-reliance a serious post-war economic reconstruction effort must cater for itself and be synchronized with the political, security and humanitarian action points provided by the Pretoria-Agreement.
External foot-dragging from the Federal political camp and debilitating internal feud in Tigray hand in glove rendered the road to the implementation of the Pretoria-Agreement sticky and at times greasy. Driving on such road has become accident-prone. TPLF Party leader and the Interim President have used every opportunity to pay lip service to post-war reconstruction. It is occasionally mentioned as a closing remark or just to color the political rhetoric. Busy as the political leaders of Tigray are in the hot-potato of party politics they could not fully engage in the implementation of the Pretoria-Agreement let alone add the heavy burden of post-war reconstruction on their backs. As they are exhausting public funds, time, and their energies on “who takes the center stage” by the time they come face to face with the urgency and a piled up backlog of post-war reconstruction needs, morale is already drained and unity for joint action is already lost.
Post-war reconstruction
Post-war reconstruction includes enforcement of law and order, instating or re-instating good governance, economic revival and development. It endeavors to meet the needs of the affected population and prevents the resumption of the conflict by trying to understand the roots of the conflict. One of the reasons for a split in the ranks of the TPLF leadership is on how to avoid the resumption of conflict. Unless the cause of the war is understood to the last of its details and efforts made to remove the key drivers of conflict, resumption of conflict would be likely. A significant splinter group from the ranks of TPLF leadership and currently running the Interim Administration is pressing on the need for a review of the causes and the conduct of the “War of Résistance” in Tigray.
Although detailed examination of the events and processes of the war, in light of the manner by which they were led and coordinated, is indispensable for sustaining peace in Tigray those who allegedly feared retribution from the public or from a justice system are accused of evading responsibility by acts of digression and drawing public attention to unimportant side issues. The spread of violent crimes, illicit gold mining and general disorder has become an effective smoke screen for those who are determined to hang justice on the gallows. The only side that has remained sober, against all the right reasons to go insane, is the people of Tigray. They are trying to put sanity into the heads of their leaders by telling them, unexpectedly in more scholarly of words, to come to their senses and lead them out of the political, social and economic quagmire.
Post-war reconstruction is like a fingerprint
Post-war reconstruction is like a fingerprint. That is why Tigray should be aware of the dangers of borrowing approaches from elsewhere. Each post-war reconstruction effort must be unique because the situation the victims find themselves varies a great deal from region to region, even from locality to locality. Carefully note the following peculiarities of post-war reconstruction contexts: cause of the war and how it was resolved, the reliability of the cease-fire, the economic situation and level of development of the region/locality before the war, political and economic interest of donors on the war affected region/locality, and how many and who of the international actors participated in stopping the war. It is obvious that the causes of the Tigray War and how it ended are unprecedented at least in Ethiopia. The uniqueness of the entire conduct of the war and the extent of the tragedy that unfolded drew huge sympathy from all corners of the Globe. The West seems to have been fascinated by the bravery and discipline of the Tigrayan forces eying their possible contribution to regional peace keeping.
Key principles of post-war reconstruction
Regional and .local ownership is at the top of the management strategy of post-war reconstruction. This has to be accompanied by assigning strategic leadership in each and every post-war reconstruction programme or project. Ownership of the of post-war reconstruction in Tigray is challenged by the constant and direct interference from Federal ministries as Regional offices are simply taken as mere branches of the PM Office in Addis Ababa. It may be detrimental to Region level efforts for post-war reconstruction which should be based on uniquely designed policies and enabling legislation. Federal offices tend to take the “pre-war business as usual” for Tigray No wonder they are guided by decades old sector and national policies which could turn out to be irrelevant for post-war Tigray. Post-war reconstruction effort in Tigray must be informed with this critical consideration to guide its actions for a successful outcome. The fact that TPLF declared a lack of strategic leadership in its ranks is not good news.
Post-war reconstruction does not mean returning to the social and economic status quo ante. It is difficult and also unnecessary to recreate the pre-war situation. In most cases pre-war situations have become causes of wars. Albert Einstein said “We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them”. The pre-war social and economic situation is not so enviable when it comes to the lives of the ordinary millions of Tigrayans. A return to it is tantamount to degeneration. Creating a new one, compatible with the drastically changed political, economic and social contexts, is wiser and more sustainable. Nostalgia should not take the better of Tigray; it must give in to the bitter truth that it is an entirely different Tigray that should be envisaged. Most importantly, never jump into a spontaneous and sporadic start. Initial assessment of the needs of victims is a critical pre-requisite. Once implementation starts and every phase is completed a system of monitoring and evaluation must be instituted, staffed by M and E professionals, to perform impact assessment.
Key challenges of post-war reconstruction
Post-war reconstruction is customarily led by an interim administrative arrangement. Post-war reconstruction also needs to make key economic decisions that would have long lasting effect. This is where interim administrations are hand-cuffed by challenges from aspirants of political positions in future elections. Tigray has multiple political parties who adhere to different political ideologies. Any economic decision by the Interim Administrations that could have long lasting effects would clash with what elected parties intend to do for the economy. TPLF chairman, unable to reconcile with the idea of another man as Interim President, has been calling for an early election not to facilitate for post-war reconstruction but to secure the Region for his party. The fact that the Interim Administration lacks the legitimacy, for making key decisions with implications for the future, leads to another key challenge: Foreign investors may be unwilling to invest in a situation where policies of the Interim Administrations may change in the future.
Donors are reluctant to consider special needs of affected areas and take development in the usual way by giving priority to programmes that popularize liberal democracy and structural adjustment. Donors delay or decrease aid pledges and also allocate disproportionately more money to the military sector than to socio-economic reconstruction efforts. Donor funds may be appropriated by private contractors, consulting firms, and NGOs out of reach of interim governments. There is corruption, waste of resources and lack of accountability on the part of consultants and foreign contractors. Foreign professionals receive much higher salaries than the locals. They live in luxury unaffected by the harsh reality of life in their project areas creating crisis in the social and economic life of the localities. Contrary to the missions of their operation they breed inequality in the communities they serve.
The fact that foreign experts receive higher salaries than the locals tends to weaken interim governments engaged in post-war reconstruction as high level experts from government flock to high paying jobs in NGOs. These are challenges that are currently haunting Tigray. The pre-war mistrust of professionals in Tigray by political leaders has not been significantly altered after the war. No wonder that highly educated professionals have short duration of stays in government jobs let alone in post-war reconstruction efforts that require sacrifices.
Action Points for Post-War Reconstruction in Tigray
In Tigray launching a coordinated and policy-based post-war reconstruction has become long overdue. The Interim President has been complaining with every opportunity that he is hand-cuffed by disgruntled elements, in the ranks of the TPLF leadership, disabling him from meeting the expectations of the Pretoria-Agreement and a soon enough launch of a post-war reconstruction effort. The only way out for the Interim Administration from the deleterious deadlock is to ensure legitimacy of the transition so that post-war reconstruction is shifted to its highest gear. The talk of the establishment of a “People’s Supreme Council” should be boldly walked. In this regard whether Regional election is held sooner or later is immaterial if the people are empowered to make big decisions now. The Council can be mandated by a universal public consent, to make decisions with lasting effect, provided that the advisory-cum-legislative body is democratically elected or objectively selected.
The engine of post-war reconstruction is not started by a spontaneity-button but by a well-designed policy-key. The Policy and legislative frameworks ought to be specifically designed to cater for the realities in post-war Tigray. Formulating an overarching post-war reconstruction policy requires a legislative body which enables and legalizes planning, resource utilization and implementation of strategies, programmes, and projects derived from the policy. This will be the mission of the “People’s Supreme Council”. A large enough and inclusive pool of disciplinary, multi- and trans-disciplinary expertise should be created; and stakeholders be drawn from a broad spectrum of the public including beneficiaries, donors and public officials at all levels of the administrative hierarchy. Discrimination based on religion, ethnicity, political party or business affiliation is detrimental to the badly needed successful conclusion of post-war reconstruction.
Having a closer look at the policy-making and implementation landscape in Ethiopia is critical to the success of post-war reconstruction policy-making and implementation. Tigray, as an autonomous member of the Federal State of Ethiopia, has been obliged to conform to the Federal level policy-making mandate. Since the EPRDF took state power thirty years ago sectors and trans-sectors that do not possess a National policy of their own is a rarity. The sector and trans-sector ministries and agencies implemented their respective policies in the regional states through their branch offices. Autonomy and the associated freedom of action in the regions in this regard was only a matter of formality, not of reality. Tigray now finds itself in a post-war state of limbo where the only string that ties it with the Federation is the Pretoria-Agreement.
It is a paradox where Tigray is represented neither in the Federal Parliament nor in the Council of Ministers; but its sectors are guided every step by Federal ministries through budgetary allocations and inspections. It is in this context of a lack of freedom of action that Tigray would be formulating policies and legislating to facilitate its post-war reconstruction efforts. Post-war reconstruction in Tigray cannot wait until a Regional election is held. In spite of the urgency in the ranks of the TPLF to hold an election it is the Federal Election Board that has the final say. Moreover, although members of the Tigray Interim Administration are selected without Federal interference appointment to the post of the Interim President is the prerogative of the Prime Minister. If it is the Interim Government that should be entrusted at least with the first phase of the post-war reconstruction how much freedom can it have to accomplish the goal? In this context how high Tigray can jump with regard to formulating its own post-war reconstruction policy and legislation is a question the answer of which deserves a hefty reward.
If Tigray is determined, against all Federal odds, to take post-war reconstruction into its own hands the preparatory phase of the reconstruction effort should typically be focused on the institutionalization of policy research. Policy studies have customarily but wrongly been marketable goods for consultancy. Experiences with the several sector and multi-sector policies during the EPRDF have shown that policies were mere expert opinions or copied verbatim from other countries. Policy studies and policy making that do not fully involve beneficiaries and all stakeholders are doomed to failure. Everyone recalls the usual street-talk about policies in Ethiopia: “The policies are best but implementation is bad”. No policy can be best if its implementation is bad. Policy formulation and its implementation are two sides of the same coin. Wrong selection of policy solutions and implementation tools at the stage of policy making is what determines success in the end.
Before the war in Tigray there was a Regional government affiliated Institute for policy research established by Regional Proclamation. How much the Institute helped Tigray in its development policy making is not in public knowledge. The fact that its founding phase coincided with the couple of years in which the clouds of war were hovering over Tigray the Institute may not have had the opportunity to make a visible mark on the development landscape of Tigray. The Institute was engaged in some sporadic activities conducting surveys and the like during the Prosperity Party affiliated Interim Government in Tigray. After the Pretoria-Agreement the existence of the Institute remained obscure; but the birth of a “non-governmental” policy think tank was blessed by the Institute. Now there are two policy research Institutes in Tigray about which the Interim Government kept its mouth zipped. A few weeks ago, a conference was held to discuss a post-war reconstruction in Tigray. The role of the twin policy research institutions was not significantly obvious in the conference. In Tigray, it is customary to hold conferences and media interviews to be forgotten ever after without walking the talk of a “the way forward” at the conclusion of every scholarly gathering.
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