Ethiopian National Dialogue

Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission: Right Solution, Wrong Timing

Is the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission a right solution at wrong time? Since Abiy Ahmed assumed power, Ethiopia has witnessed a decline in both its political stability and economic prosperity. The devastating two-year conflict with Tigray has resulted in significant casualties and economic setbacks. Moreover, internal conflicts in regions like Oromia and Amhara have further destabilized the nation, leading to daily loss of civilian lives, and exacerbating humanitarian crises. The Amhara region, in particular, is on the brink of a major humanitarian disaster, with issues ranging from starvation to collapsing healthcare and education systems. In response to these challenges, the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission (ENDC) was established, aiming to address internal conflicts. However, concerns have emerged regarding the timing, impartiality, feasibility, and implementation of the ENDC. Abiy Ahmed’s recent presentation of the idea at the 21st International Development Association (IDA) Replenishment Summit, coupled with daily government media, further underscores the contentious nature of this initiative.

The government’s interest in the ENDC can be attributed to two primary factors. Firstly, pressure from foreign governments, particularly Western powers, plays a significant role. The aftermath of the prolonged conflict with Tigray has led Western nations to advocate for peace, viewing the Pretoria deal as a potential solution. However, the exclusion of key stakeholders like the Amhara region from the negotiations has complicated the path to lasting peace. With the USA being a major aid donor and holding significant leverage, there is pressure on the Ethiopian government to pursue avenues for peace. Establishing the ENDC could serve as a diplomatic maneuver to appease Western powers and mitigate external pressure. Secondly, the ENDC might serve as a pretext for Abiy Ahmed to extend his power. Having previously used the COVID-19 pandemic as justification to postpone elections, Abiy could exploit the commission’s establishment to legitimize an extension of his tenure. His ambitions to transition the government to a presidential system and potentially serve for an additional 13 years could find support under the guise of national dialogue. However, such a move raises questions about the genuine intent behind the ENDC and its effectiveness in addressing Ethiopia’s pressing issues.

Several factors undermine the potential success of the ENDC under Abiy Ahmed’s leadership. Abiy’s track record of leveraging institutions for power consolidation raises doubts about the ENDC’s independence and effectiveness. Institutions like the Boundary and Identity Commission, Electoral Board, and Human Rights Commission have faced interference, compromising their ability to address key issues impartially. Additionally, Abiy’s lack of consistency and trustworthiness undermines confidence in his commitment to dialogue and peace. His shifting alliances and contradictory actions have eroded trust both domestically and internationally, hindering meaningful progress in conflict resolution. Moreover, Abiy’s government appears to lack a coherent long-term strategy, relying instead on short-term tactics driven by personal beliefs. The questionable credibility of ENDC members, coupled with the exclusion of major stakeholders like armed groups and opposition parties, further diminishes prospects for genuine dialogue and reconciliation.

In its current form, the ENDC is unlikely to address Ethiopia’s complex challenges effectively. Abiy Ahmed’s leadership, characterized by manipulation of institutions and lack of trustworthiness, poses significant obstacles to genuine dialogue and conflict resolution. For the ENDC to fulfill its mandate, a more impartial and credible process is necessary, possibly after Abiy steps down from power. After that, if Abiy himself genuinely believes as he has a people’s constituency, he can also participate in that process as one party. Failure to address these underlying issues risks exacerbating political and economic instability, with far-reaching consequences for Ethiopia and the broader East African region.

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