Is the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission a right solution at wrong time? Since Abiy Ahmed assumed power, Ethiopia has witnessed a decline in both its political stability and economic prosperity. The devastating two-year conflict with Tigray has resulted in significant casualties and economic setbacks. Moreover, internal conflicts in regions like Oromia and Amhara have further destabilized the nation, leading to daily loss of civilian lives, and exacerbating humanitarian crises. The Amhara region, in particular, is on the brink of a major humanitarian disaster, with issues ranging from starvation to collapsing healthcare and education systems. In response to these challenges, the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission (ENDC) was established, aiming to address internal conflicts. However, concerns have emerged regarding the timing, impartiality, feasibility, and implementation of the ENDC. Abiy Ahmed’s recent presentation of the idea at the 21st International Development Association (IDA) Replenishment Summit, coupled with daily government media, further underscores the contentious nature of this initiative.
The government’s interest in the ENDC can be attributed to two primary factors. Firstly, pressure from foreign governments, particularly Western powers, plays a significant role. The aftermath of the prolonged conflict with Tigray has led Western nations to advocate for peace, viewing the Pretoria deal as a potential solution. However, the exclusion of key stakeholders like the Amhara region from the negotiations has complicated the path to lasting peace. With the USA being a major aid donor and holding significant leverage, there is pressure on the Ethiopian government to pursue avenues for peace. Establishing the ENDC could serve as a diplomatic maneuver to appease Western powers and mitigate external pressure. Secondly, the ENDC might serve as a pretext for Abiy Ahmed to extend his power. Having previously used the COVID-19 pandemic as justification to postpone elections, Abiy could exploit the commission’s establishment to legitimize an extension of his tenure. His ambitions to transition the government to a presidential system and potentially serve for an additional 13 years could find support under the guise of national dialogue. However, such a move raises questions about the genuine intent behind the ENDC and its effectiveness in addressing Ethiopia’s pressing issues.
Several factors undermine the potential success of the ENDC under Abiy Ahmed’s leadership. Abiy’s track record of leveraging institutions for power consolidation raises doubts about the ENDC’s independence and effectiveness. Institutions like the Boundary and Identity Commission, Electoral Board, and Human Rights Commission have faced interference, compromising their ability to address key issues impartially. Additionally, Abiy’s lack of consistency and trustworthiness undermines confidence in his commitment to dialogue and peace. His shifting alliances and contradictory actions have eroded trust both domestically and internationally, hindering meaningful progress in conflict resolution. Moreover, Abiy’s government appears to lack a coherent long-term strategy, relying instead on short-term tactics driven by personal beliefs. The questionable credibility of ENDC members, coupled with the exclusion of major stakeholders like armed groups and opposition parties, further diminishes prospects for genuine dialogue and reconciliation.
In its current form, the ENDC is unlikely to address Ethiopia’s complex challenges effectively. Abiy Ahmed’s leadership, characterized by manipulation of institutions and lack of trustworthiness, poses significant obstacles to genuine dialogue and conflict resolution. For the ENDC to fulfill its mandate, a more impartial and credible process is necessary, possibly after Abiy steps down from power. After that, if Abiy himself genuinely believes as he has a people’s constituency, he can also participate in that process as one party. Failure to address these underlying issues risks exacerbating political and economic instability, with far-reaching consequences for Ethiopia and the broader East African region.
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I was about to write an article about the ENDC and related issues on this channel, but you beat me, (by writing first) a very readable article. Congratulation to you and Sajid. I congratulate Sajid for launching a channel that is drawing, so far, worthy academic-like articles. Inshallah, I will write an article that further expands your remarkable article. I have one point to make though. I don’t easily relate to conspiracy theories. I would wait for further clues before getting on board with the conspiratorial idea that AAA will use the ENDC to strengthen his hold on power or to smooth the transition to presidential rule system. As I see it, he does not need the ENDC. Our nation is in a sorry state of affairs. We have a dictator in power, enfeebled opposition in disarray, and well-meaning and brave youth in the wilderness, having chosen the long and tortuous roads of armed struggle. He can do anything, unless he fears Uncle Sam and the EU. Anyways, thanks for opening an interesting dialogue on this website.
Elijah looking forward to your next piece
@Elijah I appreciate your comment. I am happy to see such civilized discussion based on ideas. I would also like to congratulate @Sajid for creating this channel for the exchange of ideas between your page readers or YouTube followers.
Coming to your point regarding the presidential system, it is Abiy’s long-term plan to change the system. He is already running the country as a dictatorial presidential system, but the presidential system will give him more power, at least on paper. With regard to power strength, you may know that before the previous election, Lidetu and Jawar were raising the idea of a transitional government, and the government had tension with the TPLF. The government decided it was not the right time to conduct the election, as the time was on the government’s side, and used COVID as an excuse. As you know, the TPLF conducted the election without federal government approval so COVID could not be a reason.
I believe this time ENDC is being used as an excuse. Assuming the government wants to conduct the election next time, do you think the country’s security and economy situation will allow it and goverment can get enough seat even with fake election? Two main regions are in conflict, and TPLF’s position is not known, whether it will join the Prosperity Party or be alone. So, the only option I see for the government at this time is to use ENDC as it used COVID during the last election.
@Elijah Looking forward to your article.