by Yohannes Tesfaye
As Egypt Bolsters Somalia’s Military, A Regional Power Struggle Unfolds Amid Sudan’s Civil War, Ethiopia’s Insecurity, and Eritrea’s Strategic Ambitions
Egypt’s recent decision to send heavy military equipment to Somalia has raised eyebrows across the region and beyond. While the move might seem like a routine gesture of military support, it carries far reaching implications for the Horn of Africa, a region already simmering with conflict, alliances, and power shifts. This step by Cairo is not just about Somalia—it’s part of a broader geopolitical play to secure its position in an increasingly volatile neighborhood.
At the heart of Egypt’s decision lies a multifaceted strategy. The country is navigating not only its contentious relationship with Ethiopia but also the wider challenges of a region destabilized by civil war, domestic unrest, and the ambitions of regional powers like Eritrea and the Gulf states. Against this complex backdrop, Egypt’s military aid to Somalia appears to be a calculated move in a grander game of influence and security.
The Dam that Changed Everything
Egypt’s rivalry with Ethiopia over the Nile River is the most immediate factor driving this move. The construction of Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has been a point of fierce contention for Cairo, as Egypt depends on the Nile for the overwhelming majority of its water supply. Fearing that the dam could drastically reduce the flow of water into Egypt, Cairo has been locked in tense negotiations and diplomatic standoffs with Addis Ababa for years.
The conflict over GERD is about more than just water—it’s about power. The dam is a symbol of Ethiopia’s growing influence and its desire to assert itself as a regional leader. For Egypt, which has historically dominated North Africa and the Arab world, Ethiopia’s rise represents a direct challenge to its influence in the Horn of Africa and beyond.
Now, with Ethiopia solidifying a landmark agreement with Somaliland that grants it coveted access to the Red Sea, Cairo’s concerns have grown more urgent. The deal, which allows Ethiopia access to Berbera Port and possibly the establishment of a military base, would transform Ethiopia from a landlocked nation into a strategic player in maritime trade. This not only strengthens Ethiopia’s economic position but also enhances its military reach, potentially tipping the balance of power in the region.
For Egypt, already uneasy about Ethiopia’s growing leverage over the Nile, this coastal agreement represents an even greater threat—one that must be countered. The move to arm Somalia may be Cairo’s answer to Ethiopia’s expanding ambitions, as it seeks to build up Somalia as a counterbalance to Ethiopia’s new maritime power.
Sudan’s Civil War: A New Battleground for Influence
While Ethiopia remains the primary focus of Egypt’s geopolitical maneuvers, the ongoing civil war in Sudan has added another layer of complexity to the region’s dynamics. Sudan, a crucial Nile Valley nation, is currently embroiled in a devastating conflict between rival military factions, threatening to destabilize the entire region. Both Egypt and Ethiopia have a vested interest in Sudan, each vying to shape the outcome of the conflict in ways that favor their strategic goals.
Egypt, which shares a long border with Sudan, has deep historical, political, and economic ties with the country. Cairo views stability in Sudan as essential to its national security, fearing that chaos in Khartoum could spill over into its own borders. Moreover, Egypt sees Sudan as a critical partner in its efforts to pressure Ethiopia over the Nile. A weakened or fragmented Sudan could erode Egypt’s ability to present a united front against Ethiopia’s GERD project.
Ethiopia, on the other hand, has its own complex relationship with Sudan. While the two nations have cooperated on certain regional initiatives, tensions have flared over border disputes, particularly in the contested Al-Fashaga region. The civil war in Sudan, therefore, presents both an opportunity and a challenge for Ethiopia, as it seeks to maintain stability while also protecting its own strategic interests.
Egypt’s support for Somalia could be seen as a way to secure its flanks in this broader regional conflict. By strengthening Somalia’s military capabilities, Egypt ensures that it has a reliable ally on the other side of Ethiopia, further encircling Addis Ababa and complicating its regional ambitions.
The Houthi Rebel Threat: Red Sea and Gulf of Aden Security
Another key factor behind Egypt’s decision to strengthen Somalia’s military is the rising threat posed by Houthi rebel attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis, backed by Iran, have ramped up their attacks on oil tankers and cargo vessels, creating significant disruptions in one of the world’s most critical maritime corridors.
The Red Sea is vital to global trade, and any instability in the region has direct consequences for Egypt’s economy. The Suez Canal, which connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea, is a major source of revenue for Egypt, and any threat to Red Sea shipping could harm Cairo’s economic security. The Houthis’ ability to seize or attack vessels underscores the vulnerability of these waters, which Egypt sees as integral to its strategic interests.
Somalia, located along the Gulf of Aden at the entrance to the Red Sea, is crucial to the region’s maritime security. By bolstering Somalia’s military capabilities, Egypt is not only attempting to counterbalance Ethiopia but also seeking to exert influence over the Red Sea’s security apparatus. The increase in Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping raises the stakes for Egypt, forcing it to take a more active role in securing the maritime routes that are vital to both its economy and global trade.
Egypt’s presence in Somalia could potentially give it greater control over the chokepoints through which much of the world’s trade passes. It also places Egypt in a stronger position to negotiate with other regional powers, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel, all of whom have a vested interest in securing the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
Eritrea: The Quiet Power Broker
No discussion of Horn of Africa geopolitics would be complete without considering the role of Eritrea, the reclusive yet highly strategic state nestled between Ethiopia and the Red Sea. Eritrea, led by the long-ruling President Isaias Afwerki, has a history of involvement in regional conflicts, often acting as a spoiler to Ethiopia’s ambitions.
While Eritrea and Ethiopia normalized relations in 2018 following years of bitter enmity, their alliance remains fragile, particularly as Ethiopia grapples with internal unrest. Eritrea, with its well-trained and battle-hardened military, has frequently played an outsized role in regional conflicts, including the Tigray War in northern Ethiopia.
Eritrea’s position on Egypt’s growing involvement in Somalia is unclear, but it is likely watching developments closely. Eritrea has long been wary of Egyptian ambitions in the region, especially as Cairo has sought to deepen ties with Eritrea’s rival, Sudan. If Egypt’s support for Somalia is perceived as an attempt to outflank Ethiopia, Eritrea may take a more active role in balancing power in the region, possibly through covert or diplomatic means.
In many ways, Eritrea is the wild card in this unfolding drama. Its proximity to both Ethiopia and the Red Sea means it has the potential to tip the scales in favor of either side, depending on how the regional dynamics evolve. Egypt, for its part, may seek to engage Eritrea more directly in the coming months, as it continues to build a coalition against Ethiopia’s expanding influence.
Ethiopia’s Domestic Struggles: A Weakness Egypt May Exploit
Despite Ethiopia’s ambitious moves on the regional stage, the country is grappling with serious internal challenges that could undermine its broader strategy. The war in Tigray, though officially ended in 2022, has left deep scars on the country, both politically and economically. Ethnic tensions continue to simmer in various regions, and the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is under increasing pressure to manage these conflicts while also pushing forward with Ethiopia’s development goals.
Egypt may see an opportunity in Ethiopia’s domestic instability. By bolstering Somalia’s military, Cairo could exert pressure on Ethiopia from multiple fronts, forcing Addis Ababa to divert attention and resources away from its internal challenges. Moreover, Egypt’s growing ties with Somalia could embolden other opposition groups within Ethiopia, further destabilizing the country’s already fragile political landscape.
The Gulf’s Quiet Influence
Behind the scenes of this unfolding drama are the Gulf states, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which have deep economic and strategic interests in the Horn of Africa. The UAE, in particular, has invested heavily in Somaliland, developing the Berbera Port and establishing military bases in the region. Saudi Arabia, too, has maintained close ties with both Sudan and Egypt, using its wealth and influence to shape outcomes in the region.
For Egypt, the involvement of the Gulf states represents both an opportunity and a challenge. On the one hand, Egypt could leverage its close ties with Saudi Arabia to strengthen its position in the region. On the other hand, the UAE’s growing relationship with Ethiopia and Somaliland could complicate Cairo’s efforts to isolate Addis Ababa.
A Horn of Africa in Flux
As Egypt sends military aid to Somalia, the Horn of Africa stands at a crossroads. With the Sudanese civil war threatening to spill over into neighboring countries, Ethiopia grappling with internal unrest, and Eritrea playing the role of a quiet power broker, the region is more unstable than ever. In this environment, Egypt’s decision to arm Somalia is a bold move—one that could either reshape the region’s power dynamics or plunge it deeper into conflict.
For now, Somalia is just one piece in a much larger puzzle, but as Egypt and Ethiopia continue to jockey for influence, the Horn of Africa is likely to remain a battleground for years to come. What happens next could determine the future not only of Egypt and Ethiopia but of the entire region’s fragile peace.
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