What is Somalia planning to do to stop Ethiopia Somaliland MoU from being implemented? Recognition of Somaliland as a country by Ethiopia is one of the key points of the controversial Memorandum of Understanding signed by Ethiopia and Somaliland in January this year.
During President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s first term, starting in 2012, Somalia and Somaliland held multiple rounds of talks in cities such as Ankara, Istanbul, Dubai, and Djibouti. However, these talks resulted in a stalemate. The main barrier to reaching an agreement was the refusal of both sides to compromise on their sovereignty. Somaliland’s government sought international recognition of its long-standing ambition for independence, while the Federal Government of Somalia, in contrast, wanted to preserve the former union.
President Hassan Sheikh has been unable to unite these two political entities voluntarily. In my view, he may see the military option as the only possible way to protect the defunct union. From his and his allies’ perspective, the lack of international recognition for Somaliland makes such measures appear legal. Beyond this speculation, however, it is clear that the president is making moves to build up Somalia’s military. With the recent lifting of the UN arms embargo, the Hassan Sheikh administration is working with allies such as Eritrea, Egypt, and Turkey to train thousands of soldiers. Egypt and Turkey are also willing to arm Somalia. If these plans are fully realized, Somalia’s military will be significantly stronger in a few years.
Meanwhile, rhetoric from Mogadishu claims that Ethiopia is annexing Somali territory. Although this claim is problematic, it serves as a powerful tool to galvanize support. Beneath the thin veneer of cooperation, some factions of the Somali political elite and parts of the population still harbor resentment toward Ethiopia, particularly over the inclusion of Somali regional states in Ethiopia and the loss of the 1977 war. This rhetoric has found a receptive audience among these groups, and President Hassan Sheikh appears to be using it to rally support for his fragile federal government. It remains unclear who will respond to this call, but there is a possibility that Al-Shabaab may join the effort, as both Ethiopia and Somaliland are its arch-enemies.
The president’s main objective is to prevent Somaliland from gaining international recognition. The question now is whether Somalia and its allies have the diplomatic strength to maintain the status quo. If Somaliland fails to secure broader recognition, its fight for sovereignty will become more difficult. Any military strength gained by Somalia could be used as leverage in negotiations, or as a means to achieve objectives through force if Somalia believes this approach will succeed. This scenario would be detrimental to both Ethiopian and Somaliland interests. The only way to counter such an outcome is to train and equip Somaliland’s armed forces, ensuring they are capable of defending their sovereignty.
In conclusion, Somalia’s ongoing struggle to maintain the integrity of its union while facing Somaliland’s push for independence has reached a critical juncture. Diplomatic efforts have stalled, and military buildup appears to be a key strategy for President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as he seeks to preserve Somalia’s territorial unity. The rising rhetoric around Ethiopian annexation and the potential involvement of militant groups like Al-Shabaab further complicates the situation, highlighting the regional tensions at play. Somaliland’s bid for international recognition remains uncertain, and its ability to defend its sovereignty may depend on bolstering its military capacity. As both sides prepare for future developments, the region faces a delicate and potentially volatile path forward.
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