What is Ethiopia’s strategic interest in Somalia? In 2018, Ethiopia and Somalia drew up a plan to invest in four Somali ports to provide landlocked Ethiopia with vital commercial access. The agreement also included the establishment of an Ethiopian naval base in Somalia, a move that echoed Egypt’s strategic concerns. Egypt perceived Ethiopia’s growing role in Somali security, now set to be consolidated through trade and military agreements, as a direct challenge to its influence in the region.
However, before these plans could be implemented, the TPLF-instigated war in northern Ethiopia erupted, consuming the country’s time and resources for the next four years. This conflict presented a perfect opportunity for Egypt. In 2020, Egypt reached out to Somaliland, seeking an alliance and reportedly aiming to establish a military base there. However, Somaliland’s leadership rejected the idea of an Egyptian base on their territory.
Egypt’s fortunes changed in 2022 with the election of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as Somalia’s president, a leader who shared Egypt’s view that Ethiopia wielded excessive influence in Somali politics. Aligned with Egypt, Hassan Sheikh quickly moved to minimize Ethiopia’s hard-earned influence in Somalia. His first action was to refuse to implement the 2018 agreement with Ethiopia, arguing that it would grant Ethiopia too much power in Somalia. Additionally, he joined the East African Community (EAC), further distancing Somalia from Ethiopia.
Hassan Sheikh’s administration did not stop there. The new president sought alliances with Egypt and Eritrea—both adversaries of Ethiopia—to establish new security paradigms in Somalia that would diminish Ethiopia’s role. By the end of 2023, Ethiopia’s hopes for sea access and a naval presence seemed more like a distant dream than a reality. The Hassan Sheikh government successfully pushed Ethiopia out, first by blocking the establishment of a naval base, and second, by severing potential trade ties that could have emerged from the port agreements, all while aligning Somalia with the EAC.
As a result, Ethiopia found itself with limited options for securing sea access for its navy. Eritrea, Ethiopia’s northern neighbor, was hostile and not a viable partner. Djibouti, despite hosting several foreign military bases, including naval ones, was unable to lease Ethiopia sea access for its navy. With few choices left, Ethiopia turned to Somaliland.
In January 2024, Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that would finally realize Ethiopia’s decades-long ambition of securing safe and uninterrupted sea access for trade and security. This move, however, sparked outrage in Mogadishu and provoked strong reactions from Hassan Sheikh’s government. Hassan Sheikh’s response was to double down on his initial approach, further marginalizing Ethiopia’s influence in Somalia. He also sought to establish a new security framework in Somalia that would limit Ethiopia’s role by aligning closely with Ethiopia’s arch-enemies, Egypt and Eritrea.
Since Hassan Sheikh’s election, Egypt and Somalia have seen eye to eye on the “Ethiopian issue.” Their first objective was to prevent Ethiopia from gaining secure sea access. Their second was to steer Somalia’s trade alliances away from Ethiopia. Seizing this opportunity, Egypt and Eritrea, along with Somalia, devised a strategy to deny Ethiopia any strategic victories.
This tit-for-tat escalation has now evolved into a clear alliance among Ethiopia’s adversaries—Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia. These three entities share a common goal: to undermine Ethiopia’s sea access deal. To achieve this, Egypt and Eritrea have employed a range of tactics to weaken and fragment Ethiopia from within. These include cyber-attacks on Ethiopian institutions and infrastructure, spreading fake news, exploiting religious tensions between Ethiopian Christians and Muslims, flooding Ethiopia’s underground economy with foreign currencies (in collaboration with domestic agents and groups like the TPLF and OLA), and fueling inflationary pressures.
Furthermore, they have identified, recruited, financed, and deployed a broad spectrum of foreigners as tourists to Ethiopia. These agents are tasked with spying, sabotaging targets, monitoring public sentiment, identifying weaknesses, spreading misinformation, and recruiting allies. They also aim to elevate narratives of irreconcilable differences among Ethiopia’s various nations, nationalities, and peoples, while funding and arming national liberation fronts.
Now, with Somalia joining this alliance, these tactics are being deployed not only against Ethiopia but also against Somaliland, particularly in the eastern regions. The combined efforts of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia represent a significant challenge to Ethiopia’s strategic interests in the Horn of Africa.
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